1 Hour FMC is a Luck Based Event
ErikJohnson (2012-02-03 22:59:00 +0000)
getting lucky isn't a crime but no event should reward luck as much as FMC does.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BoU6mVhuT8w
reading this might be faster than watching the video -
the main issue is that the rankings section the of WCA website should represent the skill of each competitor. solvers with more skill should win against those with less skill and should also get a higher rank. if this is true, then the podium results in competition should be correct. we can see the disadvantage of using single solves to determine skill just by comparing the single and average ranks of any cube, except maybe 2x2, and judging what each solver typically averages by looking at their history. if we look at the FMC ranks, and each solvers history, it becomes obvious that a lot of the people ranked near or at the top aren't necessarily better than those ranked bellow them. so if the big leader board is not correct then the podium results in competition cannot be correct.
an easy way to fix the issue is to give each solver 2-3 scrambles and have them do multiple solutions in one hour. that way, not only do they have to rely on their skill and knowledge of the cube more than luck, but we can also take an average of 2 or a mean of 3. I'm going to email Per and see if he can make a section for this format in his weekly FMC. I think that would be a great place to test it out.
Alukret (2012-02-09 11:40:56 +0000)
sure, FMC have some luck, and averaging is only way to fix that problem..
1 hour for 3 scrambles looks very hard to execute, but it is more honourly I think. may we need to increase time, e.g. 3 scr = 1.5 hour, or maybe 2 scr = 1 hour?
on the other hand - the fortune favours the strong.
Sebastien (2012-02-10 15:16:35 +0000)
All in all you propose to reduce the time everyone can spend on a scramble to reduce the luck in the event?
Sorry, but this makes me laugh.
Alukret (2012-02-12 13:09:18 +0000)
Sebastien, we propose to increase number of attempts, and yes, it will reduce some luck.
Only problem is that need more time to conduct this event.
Sebastien (2012-02-14 17:47:36 +0000)
The proposal is handing in more solutions [b:3uy6lsup]within the same amount of time.[/b:3uy6lsup] This is surely not going to reduce luck in FMC, it will effect the opposite. Good FMCers usually spend the entire hour on their solution.
If the proposal was having means/averages with an hour per scramble, then I would surely be with you.